The Professional Association for China’s Environment

Because of its dynamic economy and huge population, China will experience the greatest growth in energy demand of any nation in the world. As such, China represents the largest future source of energy-related pollution, including CO2 emissions. At the same time, China is the leading developing country in its efforts to reduce energy growth. Since 1980, energy demand in China has grown only half as fast as GDP. Had energy and GDP in China grown at the same rates, at today’s GDP China would produce CO2 emissions at twice the current level and account for about one quarter of world emissions instead of the 13% it actually contributes. This paper describes the research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) China has undertaken to promote energy efficiency, since the major reforms in energy carried out early in Deng Xiaoping’s regime. Most of the attention is given to deployment, in terms of policies and programs that China has carried out, 2 Editor’s note: This article was taken from an unfinished draft the author had prepared for the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). We reprint it here with his permission but apologize for not having the associated references. because much of the effort has focused in this area. However, China has also had important RD&D activities as well, and these are described. Some of the major uncertainties facing the future of energy efficiency in China include • the continuation and reformulation of energy efficiency RD3 under a new national energy conservation law; • the maintenance of government investment in energy efficiency demonstrations in the face of sweeping reforms of the banking system; • the inadequacy of existing regulations and standards for co-generation systems; and • the design and application of new deployment approaches to energy efficiency technology (market transformation programs) consistent with market reforms. The paper recommends that a U.S. government program be initiated at a level of at least $10M per year to further the energy efficiency RD3 collaboration between China and the United States. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) should lead the program. Its design and execution should rely on the active efforts of the Sino-U.S. Working Group on Energy Efficiency and its ten teams created jointly by the government of China and the U.S. DOE. Such a program has the potential to produce benefits to the United States, to China, and to the global environment that are vastly greater than its costs.